There’s a global panic right now about the Coronavirus, also known as COVID-19.
While the illness is real, we have very little factual data about the illness or its spread.
For starters, there’s an indication this isn’t actually a virus — antiviral medications aren’t making much of a dent.
Instead this looks to be a bacterial infection along the lines of bacterial pneumonia. This possibility is backed up by the apparent success of antibiotics in treatments.
Additionally, testing has not yet caught up with the pandemic. There will be plenty of carriers that go untested worldwide, and perhaps some carriers have already been sick and have since recovered.
We’ll never test our way out of this.
And once global testing really ramps up the numbers will appear to explode, further driving peoples’ fear.
That’s the biggest concern I see: the fear mongering of the 24 hour news cycle. This illness will continue to spread world wide. There’s a chance you too will contract COVID-19.
It’s being reported that there’s a 2-4% mortality rate with COVID-19.
“Jeffrey, if you know 200 people that means 8 might die!”
That’s statistically likely only if the 200 people include many elderly or people with a compromised immune system. Most of us know people our own age, with a handful of people in different age ranges. It’s unlikely that this flat 2-4% aligns with any individual’s social circle.
(another way to look at this — your grandparents might have a disproportionately larger impact to their social circle than you do.)
One under-reported aspect is this 2-4% mortality rate is an estimate for illnesses inside China. The rate is a far lower 0.9% estimated mortality rate in the USA.
But the fear being propagated by corporate news agencies ensures that people curtail their social behaviors, which leads to a wider economic impact.
As industries begin to cancel large events (Google just cancelled their Google Next 2020 event, for example), the lessened travel and trade will slow the economy.
And a slow economy, with layoffs and unemployment, can have a wider health & wellness impact across all demographics far more than just COVID-19.
What I’m getting at is that the hand sanitizer that was put on every desk at my office is unlikely to solve anything. It’s theater to give people a sense of control and security, but most people will experience the secondary effects of the economic impact far more than a direct health impact.
Stay well,
Jeffrey
PS. There are many people buying face masks to protect themselves from transmission. I heard on the radio this morning some doctors asking people to stop buying masks, because the masks are better used to protect against your own germs from spreading than they are to protect you from contracting COVID-19.
While this may be true… medical professionals still use these masks themselves. The masks obviously have some impact in the contraction of any airborn infectious illness.
If you want to make your own mask, here’s a video to do just that—